Audrey Brennan, INRS-UCS
Many mayors, as well as former elected municipal officials, ran as candidates in the last federal election. We can think, for example, of Louis Villeneuve, mayor of Bromont, who ran in Brome–Missisquoi (Desrosiers 2025), or Gregor Robertson, former mayor of Vancouver, candidate in Vancouver–Fraserview–South Burnaby (Crawford 2025), among many others (CBC News 2025; Delaney, 2025). In fact, according to a 2016 report, between 20% and 30% of MPs in the House of Commons have experience in municipal politics (Grand-Maison 2016). But to what extent do municipal elected officials aspire to enter federal politics?
In 2020, the CMB asked its respondents where they imagined themselves in 2025. Table 1 shows that only 4.4% of respondents imagined themselves as either federal or provincial. This may not seem like much, but since there are far fewer federal seats than municipal seats in Canada, it is useful to look at the profile of elected officials who were considering running for a term other than that of elected municipal official in 2025.
Table 1 2020 Question: Which of the following best describes where you will ideally be five years from now?
In 2020, a question asked of respondents was: "If you could no longer hold your current position, how appealing would each subsequent position be to you?" [Member of Parliament]. Respondents could choose between: Very Unappealing, Unappealing, Appealing, Very Appealing, or Don't Know.
Whereas in 2023, the question was phrased as follows: " What are the chances that you would ever run for federal office in the future?" Respondents could indicate an answer ranging from No chance to Certain to Run, with a one in two chance in the middle of the scale, thus allowing them to express their degree of probability.
To allow for comparison with 2020 data, the 2023 responses regarding the likelihood of running were grouped into four categories: responses from 1 to 2 were recoded as Very Unappealing, those from 3 to 5 as Unappealing, those from 6 to 8 as Appealing, and those from 9 to 11 as Very Appealing. I am aware that the two issues are not identical; However, we hypothesize that a central element of the likelihood of running is the appeal of being a Member of Parliament — hence this recoding.
Table 2 shows the number of respondents who participated in the survey. In 2020, 940 elected officials responded, including 48.2% men and 22.1% women, evenly distributed according to the size of the municipalities, although those with fewer than 15,000 inhabitants are overrepresented (Population Category). In 2023, 1,034 elected officials answered the question, including 48.9% men and 30.9% women, mainly over the age of 55 and from municipalities with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants.
Table 2 Number of respondents according to the variables used in this blog post
Are there differences between men and women respondents? Some studies in political science highlight the possible existence of a gap in political ambition between men and women (Fox and Lawless 2004; Kantak and Woon 2014). However, according to Figure 1, there are little or no differences between men and women in both 2020 and 2023.
Figure 1 Appeal of a federal elected position by gender
Among respondents aged 65 and over (black), the most frequent response—both in 2020 and 2023—was that the position unappealing or very unappealing. Conversely, the age groups most likely to find the position appealing or very appealing were those aged 25-64 year olds for both years. Finally, the group most enthusiastic about running for federal office is the 18-24 year olds: in 2020, the few respondents in this age group all indicated that the position was very appealing, while in 2023, 66.7% found it appealing and 33.3% Very unappealing.
Figure 2 Appeal of a federal elected position by age
Finally, according to Figure 3, in 2020, elected officials in municipalities with more than 500,000 inhabitants (light grey) were proportionally more frequently found the position of federal elected official appealing (42.9%). However, this proportion fell by almost half (24.6%) in 2023.
Figure 3 Appeal of the position of federal elected official by municipality size
CMB respondents are not inclined to enter federal politics. Several reasons could explain this lack of appeal. We can think of the harassment of elected officials, including municipal elected officials (see McMahon 2025 to consult the results of the 2025 CMB harassment questions). However, other factors may come into play, such as work-life balance. In addition, respondents from municipalities with more than 500,000 inhabitants show the greatest interest in the position of federal elected official.
CBC News. 2024. "Former Kingston and Gananoque Mayors Compete in Kingston and the Islands Federal Election." CBC News, March 22, 2024. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/kingston-and-the-islands-federal-election-mayors-competing-1.7495014
Crawford, Emma. 2025. "Former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson to Run as Liberal Candidate in Federal Election." CityNews Vancouver, March 23, 2025. https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2025/03/23/federal-election-former-vancouver-mayor-gregor-robertson-liberal-candidate
Delaney, Zar. 2025. "Mayor Sohi to Run for Federal Liberals in Edmonton Southeast." Edmonton Journal, March 22, 2025. https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/mayor-sohi-to-run-federal-liberals-edmonton-southeast
Desrosiers, Antoine. 2024. "Une nouvelle candidature dans Brome–Missisquoi pour Bromont." Radio-Canada, March 22, 2024. https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2150398/candidature-brome-missisquoi-bromont-elections
Fox, Richard L., and Jennifer L. Lawless. "Entering the arena? Gender and the decision to run for office." American journal of political science 48, no. 2 (2004): 264-280.
Grand-Maison, Étienne. 2016. Les carrières politiques au Canada: L’importance de la politique municipale comme terrain de formation des députés fédéraux. Ottawa: Programme de stage parlementaire. https://pip-psp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Étienne-Grand-Maison-Projet-de-Recherche-2015-16.pdf
Kanthak, Kristin, et Jonathan Woon. "Women don't run? Election aversion and candidate entry." American journal of political science 59, no. 3 (2015): 595-612.
McMahon, Nicole. 2025. "Harassment in Municipal Politics: Experiences of Local Politicians." Canadian Municipal Barometer. Accessed April 30, 2025. https://www.cmb-bmc.ca/articles/harassment-in-municipal-politics-experiences-of-local-politicians/
